NEWS ANALYSIS | The Mindoro Clashes: Noise, Propaganda, and What the CPP Might Be Hiding

MANILA—To former rebels, the clashes that recently erupted in Occidental and Oriental Mindoro between troops of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the New People’s Army (NPA) do not mark any “advance” in the armed struggle. What they reveal instead is how desperation is often masqueraded as bravery, and how the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is scrambling to shape the narrative in its increasingly irrelevant and isolated guerilla war. 

Skirmishes with the NPA are not uncommon. But what is unusual in Mindoro is the level of propaganda noise the CPP and its allied groups have mustered in response. 

“Normal ang engkuwentro, pero hindi normal na ganito kaingay ang reaksyon,” said Anton, a former political instructor in one of the guerilla units in Mindoro. [An encounter is normal, but the reaction is unusually loud.]

Former rebels like Anton who are monitoring the situation noted the frontlining of the Party’s National Youth and Students Bureau (NYSB), one of the organs being currently mobilized to orchestrate demonstrations and social media campaigns to provide civilian and political cover for what would otherwise be considered armed insurgent-related incidents.

Karapatan–Southern Tagalog condemned the “harassment” they supposedly experienced from August 9 to 11 while conducting a fact-finding mission in Roxas, Oriental Mindoro, aimed at portraying the situation in Mindoro as “militarized.” However, they were driven away by residents and, humiliatingly, caught on video.

Meanwhile, some 250 kilometers away, the General Assembly of Student Councils (GASC) of the University of the Philippines issued an impassioned appeal to respect the remains of their fallen “kasamas” [comrades], contradicting claims by their allies that the deceased were civilians.

In recent memory, Anton said that this level of concerted effort focused on a single region was only previously seen during the “Save Pantaron” campaign, when the NPA’s National Operations Command and the CPP’s National Propaganda Commission were active in Southern Mindanao in 2018, and again in the Visayas, when the Central Committee was present there.

“May itinatago sila sa Mindoro,” Anton observed. [They’re hiding something in Mindoro.]

Vulnerable node of leadership 

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with the support of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), has declared that there are no longer any NPA guerrilla groups operating nationwide. In Eastern Samar, a clash last June left one NPA fighter dead and underscored the weakening state of the Sub-Regional Committee Sesame, with commanders admitting morale and numbers are at critical levels. 

In Davao Region, the last remaining NPA fighters were arrested while traveling in vans, attempting to evade a government encirclement operation. Last week, nine NPA fighters were killed in Bukidnon. On August 17, at least four guerrillas, including a female combatant, were killed in Malaybalay City, Bukidnon. The Party has so far issued only token statements, offering little beyond the usual campaign.  

Mindoro’s case, therefore, raises questions: why does the CPP treat it differently?

The wider context shows why. Major Party organs and NPA units in Mindanao have been dismantled and Eastern Visayas committees reduced to remnants, according to AFP statements. With whole mass bases in traditional Red areas disassembled under the Whole-of-Nation approach of EO 70, only a few rudimentary guerrilla units remain available to host higher Party cadres.

The hypothesis among former cadres is that Mindoro now serves as a fallback hub. If so, the sudden defensiveness of the CPP is less about tactical victories, and more about shielding a vulnerable node of its leadership.

The propaganda machine

In the CPP, propaganda has always outweighed battlefield reality. Former fighters recall how Ang Bayan, the Party’s central organ, often inflated tactical offensive reports.

“Sa 15-minutong putukan, wala kaming natamaan. Pero sa salaysay, may tatlong sundalong napatay at isang opisyal na nabaril dahil maputi siya,” Anton recalled. “Effective ang propaganda, pero hindi ibig sabihin totoo.”

Such exaggerations were not mistakes; they were deliberate morale boosters designed for both cadre and sympathizers.

The difference is stark when set against the AFP’s online messaging. Military posts on clashes typically express regret over deaths, even of their enemies. By contrast, CPP propaganda celebrates military and police casualties as an achievement, their deaths being branded as feather-light because they supposedly serve the “interests of the ruling class.”

The result, according to former rebels, is growing resentment among civilians. “Ang tao nakikita na pareho lang sila. Minsan mas masahol pa ang CPP dahil sa pagdiriwang nila ng kamatayan,” Anton added. [People see that they’re basically the same. Sometimes, the CPP is even worse because of how they glorify death.]

Why Mindoro matters

Mindoro, then, is more than just a backdrop of local encounters. It may be the last remaining space where the CPP-NPA can pretend to wield both guns and a narrative. But the louder the propaganda, the clearer the signs of weakness.

As the old Filipino proverb goes, “May pakpak ang balita, at tainga ang lupa.” [News travels on wings, and the ground has ears.] Secrets whispered to the bamboo eventually echo through the whole village. In Mindoro, the CPP’s noise may be less a sign of strength than a confession of what it fears to lose.